Search results for: macroeconomic-policy-and-steady-growth-in-china

Macroeconomic Policy and Steady Growth in China

Author : Zhang Xiaojing
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Since the appearance of macroeconomics in the 1940s, economists have created many theoretical frameworks to explain the origin and mechanism of economic fluctuations. However, few of these have managed to gain explanatory power over reality; nor can they solve real-life problems. This book proposes a new macroeconomic paradigm that makes breakthroughs in these areas. Based on a balance sheet approach and macro-financial linkage analysis, this book carries out a comprehensive analysis of the trends within China’s macroeconomy in 2020. The author argues that the COVID-19 pandemic created a great degree of uncertainty—therefore, supply-side structural reform and improved total factor productivity have been promoted to ensure a policy of steady growth. Given the declining economic growth rate in percentage terms, China has needed to adapt to a moderate increase in the leverage ratio while applying more effective fiscal policies to achieve a dynamic balance between stable growth and risk prevention. Scholars and students of economics and finance, especially Chinese economics, will find this book a useful reference.

China s Macroeconomic Outlook

Author : CMR of Xiamen University
File Size : 90.86 MB
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The research team makes the following forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s growth will remain stable and reach 8.23 percent, an increase of 0.43 percentage points compared with the previous year; even though there is inflation pressure resulting from global monetary easing, severe inflation in China is unlikely to happen, and the consumer price index (CPI) will remain at 3.11 percent. Second, the growth of imports and exports will rebound, but the trade surplus will decrease further. Finally, the share of investment in GDP will continue to be high in the short term as urbanization promotes the growth of fixed assets investment, though higher per capita incomes will result in high and steady consumption.

Macro control and Economic Development in China

Author : Jiagui Chen
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This book, together with Economic Development and Reform Deepening in China is a collection of papers written in recent years about maintaining economic growth, managing inflation, the relationship between growth and structural adjustment, control of price growth, maintaining stable economic development, and other relevant aspects of macro-control, economic development, and deepening reform. Chinese government adopts many of the recommendations put forward by the book.

China s Monetary Policy Regulation and Financial Risk Prevention

Author : Hui Zhou
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This book utilizes an innovative approach combining qualitative and quantitative methods to investigate the correlations between monetary policy, economic growth, inflation and asset price volatility, explores the creation of financial risk prevention systems and reaches conclusions with both theoretical and practical value. The book offers an empirical analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy, specifies the correlations between monetary policy, economic growth and inflation and provides a theoretical basis for and empirical demonstration of monetary policy implementation in China. Previous research in China has primarily focused on the correlation between monetary policy and a specific asset price, while this book comprehensively addresses the appropriateness of real estate, stock, bond and futures price regulation through monetary policies, lending it a high degree of practical significance. In order to arrive at a systemic risk prevention and regulation mechanism for China, the book uses the GARCH mean value model and MGARCH-BEKK model to create a pressure index and provide a three-level pre-warning system for currency crises, bank crises and asset bubble crises. The book systemically introduces the idea of macro-prudential regulation into the Chinese financial system by first clarifying the necessity of implementing macro-prudential regulation in China and then proving its effectiveness in mitigating pro-cyclicality and enhancing steady economic growth by constructing a mitigation model.

China s Fiscal Policy

Author : Gao Peiyong
File Size : 78.44 MB
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Fiscal policy has always been a primary measure of macroeconomic control. The fiscal revenue and expenditure can influence the operation of the whole economic and social activities by changing the existing GDP distribution pattern, affecting the consumption and investment of enterprises and people, etc. Within the framework of macroeconomic analysis, this book reviews the evolution of China’s fiscal policy, and the main changes China’s economy has experienced since 1990s. To begin with, it makes an empirical research of China’s national debts, including their relationship with macroeconomic regulation and total social demand. Besides, it examines the economic effect mechanism of national debts issuance. Then it focuses on the taxation issues, elucidating the sources of tax revenue growth and the judgments on tax burden. The issue of tax reduction is also covered, especially its complexity in China. Lastly, it provides insights into China’s fiscal tendency, changes of macroeconomic policies, and financial operation in the context of the "New Normal". Scholars and students in economics, finance and Chinese economic studies will be attracted by this book. Also, it will appeal to readers interested in modern Chinese economic history.

Summer Report of China Industrial Economic Situation Analysis 2016

Author : Industrial Economic Situation Analysis Team Institute of Industrial Economics, CASS
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By analyzing the status quo of the industrial economy, this book argues that the economic growth in China’s industrial economy will continue to decline, with industries becoming segmented more rapidly, profitability slumping, and economic structures being adjusted further. It also provides policy recommendations to promote the healthy development of China’s industrial economy. Using a wealth of data and figures, it assesses the state of China’s industrial economy in 2015 and the prospects for 2016. The perspective of this book is, of course, a Chinese one, thus helping readers to grasp what and how Chinese people think about their country’s industrial economy. As such, it not only represents a valuable resource for academic studies, but will also appeal to all readers with an interest in the aspects discussed.

Chinese Economic Development

Author : Yinxing Hong
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The book provides a meticulous analysis of economic development and concomitant problems in China since the late 1970s and advances suggestions on further economic modernisation and transition from both theoretical and practical angles. Based on theories from development economics and solid empirical studies, the authors, two renowned Chinese economists, provide a perceptive analysis of the Chinese development model in the post-Mao era. They shed light on questions that have perplexed many: How can China sustain the rapid growth of the past 40 years? Is there a unique "China path" to economic progress? They argue compellingly that China’s development model has to switch from a manufacturing-driven one to a brand-new approach, centring on scientific and technical innovation and the integration of its existing economic structure into an increasingly complex global economy. Such transformation will help overcome the "middle-income trap" while addressing other institutional and economic challenges. The book will appeal to students, scholars and policymakers interested in the Chinese and global economies, as well as transnational studies in the post-COVID-19 world. General readers willing to obtain a grasp of Chinese economic development from the insider’s perspective will also find it useful.

China s Macroeconomic Outlook

Author : CMR of Xiamen University
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Owing to the decline in domestic investment and trade with the rest of the world, China’s real GDP in the first half of 2012 was lower than expected. Based on forecasts from China’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), the slowdown of the growth rate in 2013 will be moderate as a result of modestly proactive macro control policy. GDP would grow at 8.01 percent in 2012, and then rebound to 8.29 in 2013; CPI would fall to a 2.9 percent in 2012, and then would pick up to 3.27 percent in 2013. In the scenario in which the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area worsened in the second half of 2012, real GDP is forecast at 7.71 percent for 2012 and 7.5 percent for 2013. Even if the external economic environment becomes worse, China’s growth is expected to stay at above 7.5 percent, which might be a steady growth rate for the near future. If China plans to achieve a higher growth rate by launching the “2 trillion massive investment package”, the growth rate of GDP could be increased to 8.25 and 8.86 percent in 2012 and 2013 with a risk of inflation and worsening economic structure. The policy implication from CQMM: on one hand the Chinese government should be able to maintain the growth rate of around 8 percent by means of timely fine-tuning of monetary policies; on the other hand, the emphasis of the micro control should be placed on structural adjustments through fiscal policies. In the long run, deepening economic, social and institutional reform will be crucial to remove the significant structural imbalance and institutional barriers to market competition, to accelerate the transformation of economic development patterns, and finally to maintain a sustainable growth rate.

China s Macroeconomic Outlook

Author : Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University
File Size : 77.81 MB
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This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing results from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China’s economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies. /div

Annual Report on China s Financial Development 2012

Author : Wang Guogang Li Yang
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Written and edited by leading Chinese economic and finance advisers, this key book offers a detailed analysis of China's financial situation in 2012. It will enable the reader to understand China's financial climate plus the likely financial trends and commercial opportunities in 2012 and beyond. Given China's increasingly crucial influence in global finance this book gives the latest expert analysis on China's own financial development. Contributors include Li Yang, Vice President of the Academy of Social Sciences, Vice President of China Institute of International Finance, Executive Director of China Finance Society and Executive Director of China Urban Financial Society.

China s Macroeconomic Policy Trifecta and Challenges to the Governance of the Global Trading System

Author :
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Major Issues and Policies in China s Financial Reform Vol 3

Author : Chen Yu Lu, Guo Q?ngwang, Zhang Jie
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“Pants with close crotch,” “polyandry,” and “a tiger in a cage” — these enigmatic terms are frequently used by Chinese economists and policy-makers to figuratively describe certain significant financial events in the history of New China. Major Issues and Policies in China's Financial Reform is a 4-volume guide to these kinds of events. ? With the economic transformation of late 1980s as a turning point, this series provides an in-depth examination of 28 key financial policies and issues in China over a 60-year timespan. The series combines vivid stories and theoretical analysis to explain the historical background of these financial reforms, including such concepts as replacing the fiscal appropriation of investment funds by bank loans, the replacement of profit delivery by taxes, and debt for equity swaps.? ? The series also offers evaluations of the subsequent impacts of these policies on China’s economic development. Major Issues and Policies in China's Financial Reform uses a review of history to provide a basis for policy recommendations, innovations, and future fiscal and financial reforms In China.

China s Macroeconomic Outlook

Author : CMR of Xiamen University
File Size : 59.73 MB
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This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing results from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China’s economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies. /div

China s Economic Dilemmas in the 1990s

Author : The Joint Economic Committee
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Most students of contemporary China are familiar with the Joint Economic Committee studies on China, which have appeared periodically since 1967. This is the most recent study in the series (released in April, 1991). This volume follows the format of the previous studies, offering a broad sweep of its subject matter. The 50 chapters - contributed by Chinese scholars in government, universities and private research centres - are divided into five major parts. Each section begins with an overview which summarises and comments on the main points in each of the chapters. The volume offers a detailed examination of China's economy, and the political and social factors currently facing the leadership in Beijing.

Saving and Investment in the Twenty First Century

Author : Carl Christian von Weizsäcker
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The economy of the 21st century in the OECD countries and in China, is characterized by a new phenomenon: the structural surplus of private savings in relation to private investment. This is true even in a situation of prosperity and very low interest rates. On the one hand, this excess saving is due to people's increasing inclination to save in light of rising life expectancy, driven by the desire to have sufficient assets in old age. On the other hand, the demand for capital is not increasing to the same extent, so that investment is not keeping pace with the rising desire to save. The resulting gap between the private desire for wealth and private investment can only be closed by increasing public debt. This open access book offers a new, capital-theoretical perspective on the macroeconomic relationship between desired wealth and investment, and it presents new empirical data on private wealth and its composition in the OECD plus China area. The authors argue that a free economic and social order can only be stabilized if the wealth aspirations of individuals are met under conditions of price stability. This is not possible without substantial net public debt. A new way of thinking about the economy as a whole is required. By way of an in-depth theoretical and empirical analysis, the book demonstrates this new way of thinking and describes the current challenges facing economic policy. It will appeal to economists and students of economics who are interested in macroeconomic theory and its economic policy implications. An impressive, and convincing theoretical dive into the fundamentals behind secular stagnation, with very strong implications for actual debt policy. Public debt may be needed to improve welfare. - Olivier Blanchard, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics Emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2008 to 2015. Saving and Investment in the Twenty-First Century gives a wholly new perspective on macroeconomics. (...) Weizsäcker and Krämer describe a simple, practical solution to the underemployment that has plagued Southern Europe for more than a decade. - George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2001. Professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University and Professor of Economics Emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley. This is a profound and original contribution that can help us to understand and act on the great issues of our times. - Nicholas Stern, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. Author of the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change. Chief Economist at the World Bank from 2000 to 2003.

China s Macroeconomic Outlook

Author : Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xia
File Size : 37.40 MB
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This report is a partial result of the China’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China’s economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005.Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China’ major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China’s macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. This 27th quarterly report has been presented at the Forum on China’s Macroeconomic Prospects and Press Conference of the CQMM at Xiamen University Malaysia on October 25, 2019. This conference was jointly held by Xiamen University and Economic Information Daily of Xinhua News Agency.

Macroeconomic Policies for Stable Growth

Author :
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China s Economic Dilemmas in the 1990s

Author :
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China s Macroeconomic Outlook

Author : Wenpu Li
File Size : 41.95 MB
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This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing results from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China’s economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

Economics Blue Book of the People s Republic of China 1999

Author : Liu Guoguang
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This is the preeminent and most authoritative annual report and forecast on the Chinese economy, now ranked among the three largest economies in the world as well as one of the most swiftly changing. Researched and written by a quasi-official organ of the Chinese government, it devotes many chapters to structural reforms that are drawing attention around the world. Coverage includes general forecasts and policy analyses on the Chinese economy, reports on specific regions within China including Hong Kong, reviews of the global economic situation, and prospects for the future of China.