Search results for: real-options-and-investment-under-uncertainty

Real Options and Investment Under Uncertainty

Author : Eduardo S. Schwartz
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Topics covered include the reasons for the under-investment problem and conceptual frameworks for viewing productive investment opportunities as real options; useful valuation building blocks; the quantifying of various types of real options separately and in combination; and strategic aspects of investment under uncertainty.

Real Options and Investment Under Uncertainty a Study Using Firm level Data for Thailand

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Mergers Acquisitions a Real Option valuation approach of investment decision under uncertainty

Author : Marc Zajicek
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Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: The objective of this dissertation is to examine the application of Real Options for the evaluation of companies with regard to acquisitions. There has been an intensive scientific discussion in the past years about the Real Options method for the evaluation of investments and mergers & acquisitions as in practice usually the management tries to capture future developments with static methods of capital budgeting. For example, future cash-flows are discounted with a fixed risk-adjusted discount rate. Therefore, the Real Options approach has been applied very rarely as it has the reputation of high complexity and poor practicability in daily business. However, the use of present values and capitalized values may produce pitfalls in acquisition decisions as strategic investment decisions might be characterized by a wide range of possibilities to react flexibly to a fast changing environment. In chapter 1, the term Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) is defined and the motives as well as the relevance of M&A transactions for different branches are described in detail. Furthermore, the process and the different phases of a merger or an acquisition are explained. Chapter 2 presents traditional evaluation methods of static net present value, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo and decision tree. These classic methods are discussed and a comparison is drawn among these techniques in regard to practicability. At the end of this chapter, a evaluation is presented in regard to specific situations with the mayor parameter of uncertainty and flexibility for the application of these classic methods. The basic concept of option pricing is described in chapter 3. In addition, the Black-Scholes equation and the underlying assumptions are explained in detail in order to understand financial options, which are the basic for the Real Options approach. At the end of the chapter, an example of a call and put option is discussed in order to understand the functioning of options. Chapter 4 presents an introduction and definition of the Real Options method. Furthermore, the value drivers and the value creation due to the application of Real Options are discussed and analyzed in detail. After the discussion of the functioning of Real Options, a comparison of the analogy between financial Options and Real Options is done in order to possible differences. In this context, the limitations of the analogy of financial and Real Options are presented. Finally, [...]

Investment under Uncertainty Coalition Spillovers and Market Evolution in a Game Theoretic Perspective

Author : J.H.H Thijssen
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Two crucial aspects of economic reality are uncertainty and dynamics. In this book, new models and techniques are developed to analyse economic dynamics in an uncertain environment. In the first part, investment decisions of firms are analysed in a framework where imperfect information regarding the investment's profitability is obtained randomly over time. In the second part, a new class of cooperative games, spillover games, is developed and applied to a particular investment problem under uncertainty: mergers. In the third part, the effect of bounded rationality on market evolution is analysed for oligopolistic competition and incomplete financial markets.

Evaluating real options as a means for investment appraisal under uncertainty and its degree of utilisation by companies

Author : Andreas Würfel
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Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: This paper evaluates the real options approach (ROA) as a means for appraising capital investments under uncertainty. Globalisation and growing competitiveness have led to an increase in uncertainty with regard to companies decision making. Flexibility to react to this uncertainty has become more important. The question arises whether there is a need for a further investment appraisal technique or whether traditional techniques can cope with that. A growing literature about real options shows that traditional investment appraisal techniques do not value flexibility. That is why ROA has become more important within recent years. However, the degree of its utilisation by companies seems to be rather low. Three possible reasons for that are examined: ROA is not well-known by companies, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises. ROA is only limitedly applicable. ROA is too difficult to use. After traditional investment appraisal techniques have been outlined, the real options approach is illustrated by means of a case study. The possible range of application is assessed by reviewing the literature. A survey was conducted to check whether companies know about or apply that technique, and to identify the tools used by companies. This study shows that while the range of possible applications of real options is rather vast, ROA is rarely known by German and British companies and barely applied. One reason might be, that most books and articles are of rather academic nature. This seems to have been realised since books with a focus on practical application have been published recently. The complexity of ROA seems to be a further reason for its low degree of utilisation. Companies tend to use simpler but more comprehensible techniques although these methods have some major drawbacks. However, business science should not end in itself but serve businesses. Therefore, further emphasis has to be put on making real options approachable for practitioners. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: I.Abstract2 II.Acknowledgements3 III.Table of Contents4 IV.List of Figures7 V.List of Abbreviations8 1.Introduction9 2.Characteristics of Investment Decisions11 2.1What Is a Capital Investment?11 2.2Risk and Uncertainty12 3.Tools for Investment Appraisals15 3.1Static Methods15 3.2Discounted Cash Flow Approaches (Dynamic)17 3.3Approaches Which Try to Deal With Risk20 4.The Real Options Approach24 4.1Why Use Real Options to [...]

Investment under Uncertainty

Author : Robert K. Dixit
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How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Investment Under Uncertainty with Financial Constraints

Author : Patrick Bolton
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We develop an integrated theory of investment, seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), liquidation, and corporate savings under uncertainty for a financially constrained firm, which features endogenous growth options, abandonment options, and payout policies. Facing costly external financing, the firm prefers to fund its investment internally, so that its optimal policies and value depend on both its earnings fundamentals and liquidity holdings. The firm values not only real flexibility but also financial flexibility. The interaction of real and financial flexibility generates novel real options results: (1) Limited financial slack significantly erodes the value of growth & abandonment options; (2) Firms prefer projects with front-loaded cash-flows; (3) The firm's incentive to forgo costly external financing and to accumulate internal funds may cause substantial delay in investment; (4) A financially constrained firm over-invests in early stages of its life-cycle in an effort to quickly build up its cash-flow generating capacity; (5) SEOs are driven by both firm survival and growth motives. A firm in the mature phase may find itself in three mutually exclusive regions: payout, inaction, and liquidation. A firm in its growth phase may find itself in two additional regions: a region where investment is partly financed with an SEO and a region where investment is solely financed with internal funds. These regions depend on both firm savings and earnings fundamentals.

Modeling Environment Improving Technological Innovations Under Uncertainty

Author : Alexander Golub
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The issues of technology and uncertainty are very much at the heart of the policy debate of how much to control greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of doing so are present and high while the benefits are very much in the future and, most importantly, they are highly uncertain. Whilst there is broad consensus on the key elements of climate change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. The book looks at different ways of reconciling the needs for sustainability and equity with the costs of action now. Presenting a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy, this book describes mathematical models and their predictions. The goal is to provide a practitioner’s guide for doing the science of economics and climate change. Because the assumptions motivating different problems in the economics of climate change have different complexities, a number of models are presented with varying levels of difficulty: reduced-form and structural, partial- and general-equilibrium, closed-form and computational. A unifying theme of these models is the incorporation of a number of price and quantity instruments and an analysis of their respective efficacies. This book presents models that contain structural uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty that economic agents respond to via their risk attitudes. The novelty of this book is to relate the effects of risk and risk attitudes to environment-improving technological innovation.

Dynamics Games and Science I

Author : Mauricio Matos Peixoto
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Dynamics, Games and Science I and II are a selection of surveys and research articles written by leading researchers in mathematics. The majority of the contributions are on dynamical systems and game theory, focusing either on fundamental and theoretical developments or on applications to modeling in biology, ecomonics, engineering, finances and psychology. The papers are based on talks given at the International Conference DYNA 2008, held in honor of Mauricio Peixoto and David Rand at the University of Braga, Portugal, on September 8-12, 2008. The aim of these volumes is to present cutting-edge research in these areas to encourage graduate students and researchers in mathematics and other fields to develop them further.

Intelligent Systems in Oil Field Development under Uncertainty

Author : Marco A. C. Pacheco
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The decision to invest in oil field development is an extremely complex problem, even in the absence of uncertainty, due to the great number of technological alternatives that may be used, to the dynamic complexity of oil reservoirs - which involves mul- phase flows (oil, gas and water) in porous media with phase change, and to the c- plicated combinatorial optimization problem of choosing the optimal oil well network, that is, choosing the number and types of wells (horizontal, vertical, directional, m- tilateral) required for draining oil from a field with a view to maximizing its economic value. This problem becomes even more difficult when technical uncertainty and e- nomic uncertainty are considered. The former are uncertainties regarding the existence, volume and quality of a reservoir and may encourage an investment in information before the field is developed, in order to reduce these uncertainties and thus optimize the heavy investments required for developing the reservoir. The economic or market uncertainties are associated with the general movements of the economy, such as oil prices, gas demand, exchange rates, etc. , and may lead decision-makers to defer - vestments and wait for better market conditions. Choosing the optimal investment moment under uncertainty is a complex problem which traditionally involves dynamic programming tools and other techniques that are used by the real options theory.

Investment in Farming Under Uncertainty and Decoupled Support

Author : Luca Di Corato
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The Economics of Online Markets and ICT Networks

Author : Russel Cooper
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This volume examines the economics of platform structure and firm competition within and between online markets. It also details modern theoretical treatments of regulatory intervention in online markets and the consideration of forward-looking experimental analysis of demand for yet to be provided services. The volume is divided into three parts: innovation and competition in online markets; regulation, pricing and evaluation with real options; and empirical approaches to market analysis.

Real Options and Intellectual Property

Author : Philipp N. Baecker
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This book proposes an integrated approach to patent risk and capital budgeting in pharmaceutical research and development (R and D), developing an option-based view (OBV) of imperfect patent protection, which draws upon contingent-claims analysis, stochastic game theory, as well as novel numerical methods. The text re-initiates a discussion about the contribution of quantitative frameworks to value-based R and D management.

Investment Under Uncertainty in Equilibrium

Author : Robert Novy-Marx
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Energy Finance and Economics

Author : Betty Simkins
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Thought leaders and experts offer the most current information and insights into energy finance Energy Finance and Economics offers the most up-to-date information and compelling insights into the finance and economics of energy. With contributions from today's thought leaders who are experts in various areas of energy finance and economics, the book provides an overview of the energy industry and addresses issues concerning energy finance and economics. The book focuses on a range of topics including corporate finance relevant to the oil and gas industry as well as addressing issues of unconventional, renewable, and alternative energy. A timely compendium of information and insights centering on topics related to energy finance Written by Betty and Russell Simkins, two experts on the topic of the economics of energy Covers special issues related to energy finance such as hybrid cars, energy hedging, and other timely topics In one handy resource, the editors have collected the best-thinking on energy finance.

Valuation Techniques

Author : David T. Larrabee
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Analysis and insights from top thought leaders on a pivotal topic in investing and asset management Valuation is the cornerstone for investment analysis, and a thorough understanding and correct application of valuation methodologies are critical for long-term investing success. Edited by two leading valuation experts from CFA Institute, this book brings together the insights and expertise of some of the most astute and successful investment minds of the past 50 years. From Benjamin Graham, the “father of value investing,” to Aswath Damodaran, you’ll learn what these investment luminaries have to say about investment valuation techniques, including earnings and cash flow analysis. Features the best thinking on valuation from the industry’s masters on the topic, supplemented with dozens of fascinating and instructive real-world examples Comprehensively discusses special valuation situations, such as real options, employee stock options, highly leveraged firms, corporate takeovers, and more Supplies you with the tools you need to successfully navigate and thrive in the ever-changing financial markets Is being produced with the full support and input of CFA Institute, the world’s leading association of investment professionals

New Perspectives on the Role of Information in Health Economics

Author : Elisabeth Meyer
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Does managed care reduce the costs of medical care while leaving the quality of treatment at least unchanged? What instruments should be employed to prevent risk selection? How can medical decision making be based on more rational criteria? This book consists of three major studies, each addressing a specific question related to the current debate on reforms in the health care sector. Insurers offering managed care contracts have the right to deny coverage for treatment prescribed by an insured's physician. In the US, such practices have provoked a wave of criticism against managed care. The first study shows that monitoring physicians' decisions can generally raise the efficiency of health care provision. However, insurers tend to intervene too much in medical decision making, such that consumer welfare may also decline. If premium payments do not reflect individual risk types, insurers have an incentive to practice risk selection (cream skimming). To prevent this, risk adjustment schemes have been introduced in several countries. The second study takes up the critique against conventional risk adjustment and shows that an inaccurate adjustment scheme may even have detrimental effects on social welfare. The optimal payment scheme in the model framework involves partial cost reimbursement based on the insurer's information. Watchfully waiting involves monitoring a patient's health state over time and deciding whether to undertake a medical intervention, or to continue waiting. The third study contains a formal model of the watchfully waiting process. Optimal decision rules for switching to direct medical intervention are derived. The approach could be applied to a wide range of decision problems in health economics and medicine.

Time to build and Strategic Investment Under Uncertainty

Author : Goncalo Pacheco de Almeida
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The Economics of Human Systems Integration

Author : William B. Rouse
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Fundamental Economic Principles, Methods, and Tools for Addressing Human Systems Integration Issues and Tradeoffs Human Systems Integration (HSI) is a new and fundamental integrating discipline designed to help move business and engineering cultures toward more human-centered systems. Integrating consideration of human abilities, limitations, and preferences into engineering systems yields important cost and performance benefits that otherwise would not have been accomplished. In order for this new discipline to be effective, however, a cultural change—starting with organizational leadership—is often necessary. The Economics of Human Systems Integration explains the difficulties underlying valuation of investments in people's training and education, safety and health, and work productivity. It provides an overview of how the field of economics addresses these difficulties, focusing on human issues associated with design, development, production, operations, maintenance, and sustainment of complex systems. The set of thought leaders recruited as contributors to this volume collectively provides a compelling set of data and principles for assessing the economic value of investing in people, not just in general but in specific investment situations. The early chapters provide the contexts for HSI and investment analysis, illustrating the enormous difference context makes in how issues are best framed and analyzed. A host of practical methods and tools for investment valuation are then presented. Provided are: A variety of real-world applications of economic analysis ranging from military acquisition and automotive investment to healthcare and high-tech investments in general, in both the U.S. and abroad A range of economics-based methods and tools for cost analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and investment analysis, as well as sources of data for performing such analyses Differing perspectives on economic decision-making, including a range of private sector points of view, as well as government and regulatory perspectives In addition, five real-world case studies illustrate how such valuations have been done and their major impacts on investment decisions. HSI professionals, systems engineers, and finance professionals who address investment analysis will appreciate the wide range of methods and real-life applications; senior undergraduates and masters-level graduate students will find this to be an excellent textbook that provides theory and supports practice.

Corporate Valuation in the Knowledge Economy

Author : Paul-Jürgen Sparwasser
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Master's Thesis from the year 2000 in the subject Business economics - Controlling, grade: very good, Graduate School of Business Administration Zurich (GSBA Zurich/Schweiz), course: EMBA-Program, 48 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: Die Wirtschaften im 21. Jahrhundert sind gepragt vom Ubergang der industriellen Strukturen zu Organisations- und Geschaftsformen, in denen informations- und wissensbasierten Strukturen dominieren. Die Paradigmenwechsel erfordern in allen Bereichen der Unternehmensfuhrung auch eine Neuausrichtung bisheriger, industriell gepragter Konzepte und Anpassung an die Erfordernisse einer neuen Informations- und Wissenswirtschaft. Die vorliegende These versucht hier Ansatzpunkte zu einer Neuausrichtung der Unternehmensbewertung und Unternehmensfuhrung in der Informations- und Wissenswirtschaft herauszuarbeiten und darzustellen. Prinzipien der Unternehmensbewertung und Rechnungslegung einschl. moderner marktwertorientierter Ansatze der Unternehmenssteuerung (EVA) werden dargestellt und analysiert. Ebenso die Bedeutung und wertschopfenden Funktion von Wissen in der Organisations- und Prozessgestaltung, der Messung, Bewertung und Beobachtung des Wertschopfungsbeitrages von wissensbasierten Systemen im Unternehmen . Auch die Besonderheiten und technologiebedingten Charakteristiken und neuen Regeln der kunftigen Informations- und Wissenswirtschaft werden betrachtet. Auch die Probleme der Unternehmensbewertung und Unternehmensfuhrung unter Unsicherheit, die doch gerade Paradigmenwechsel und Ubergangswirtschaften besonders pragen und kunftig in einer sich durch Innovationsschuben rasch andernden und nichtlinear verlaufenden Informations- und Wissenswirtschaft dominieren. Hierbei wird zunehmend Unternehmenswachstum durch optionale Wahrnehmung von Marktchancen und fruhzeitigen Erkennen und Eliminieren von Marktrisiken durch die Unternehmensleitung gepragt werden. Als Ergebnis wird erkannt, dass zur Unternehmensbewertung neben den ma